Here’s where things stand in the remaining House and Senate races

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Republicans are still on track to take control of the House, but with narrower margins than they hoped. Democrats have a long-term chance of retaining control, but they would need some races where Republicans lead a shift in their favor for that to happen.

Jerry Fallstrom/Orlando Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

The control of the House and the Senate is not yet known. Either party must win two of the remaining three competitive seats to gain control of the Senate. And it could all come down to a Georgia runoff next month.

Republicans are still on track to take control of the House, but with narrower margins than they hoped. Democrats have a long-term chance of retaining control, but they would need some races where Republicans lead a shift in their favor for that to happen.

Here’s where things stand, in numbers (starting Friday, 11:30 a.m. ET):

The Senate: Republicans 49, Democrats 46, Independents 2, Uncalled 3

The Democrats are +1 with their flip of the Pennsylvania Senate race. That means Republicans must hold on to Nevada, where they are leading, and return to either Arizona, which has yet to be called, or Georgia next month.

To hold the Senate, the Democrats would have to hold their ground in Arizona, where they are leading, and either catch Nevada, which is possible, or win the runoff in Georgia next month.

What’s left

Georgia: Incumbent Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican challenger Herschel Walker (R) are heading to a runoff on December 6 as neither passed 50% on the ballot. Warnock missed the threshold by just under 23,000 votes.

Arizona: Incumbent Mark Kelly (D)’s lead has increased to a margin of just over 115,000. He is currently ahead of challenger Blake Masters (R), 52% to 46% with 82% of the vote. The count is ongoing and may not be finalized until early next week, according to Bill Gates, a Republican, who is chairman of the Maricopa Board of Supervisors. But that doesn’t mean the race couldn’t be started sooner as more and more votes roll in.

Masters is going to need a significant chunk, perhaps well north of 60%, of the remaining vote in the state, to get there. But there are still hundreds of thousands of uncounted votes statewide at this point — and that includes many absentee ballots dropped off at polling centers on Election Day. Republicans said they were much more likely to vote in person on Election Day, so the margin could narrow. More vote counts are expected around 9 p.m. ET.

Nevada: Adam Laxalt (R) leads incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto (D) by just 1 percentage point, or about 9,000 votes, with 90 percent of the vote. Laxalt’s lead has narrowed since Tuesday night, although it won a little early on Friday, but expect a lot of changes as the final votes start to be counted. We may not know the final outcome for days. Nevada accepts mail-in ballots postmark before Election Day and received by 5 p.m. local time on Saturday — and voters also have a few days to “cure” ballots, if needed. State law allows, for example, if an absentee ballot is opened and someone’s signature is missing or does not appear to match, that voter would be contacted to correct it.

Alaska: This was added to the Republican total even though the race is not yet settled, as the two leading candidates are Republicans, so it will remain in the hands of the GOP. The question at this point is: which Republican. Incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R) trails Kelly Tshibaka (R) by less than 2 percentage points, just under 3,000 votes, with 80% of the vote. If none of the candidates exceeds 50%, it goes to a new ranking by choice on November 11. 23. Murkowski would likely be favored to win this.

The House: Republicans 211, Democrats 192, Uncalled 32

To control the House, each party must reach 218 seats. Republicans need a net of 5 seats to take power. They are on track to do so, BUT probably only with a 1-7 seat majority at this point. We probably won’t know the full margin for days, because there’s still five million ballots in California only yet to count.

  • Republicans need to win 7 more places to get there, i.e. 22% of the remaining places not called.
  • Current clean pickups: R+8. (They flipped 14 competitive seats to the Democrats’ 6, according to the Associated Press.)
  • Where they win: Republicans have currently flipped (14) or are winning (3) in 17 seats. Democrats flipped (6) or won (3) in 10 seats – for R+8.
  • Estimated Republican pickup: 6 to 12 seats. That would only give Republicans a 1-7 seat majority.
  • What’s left: Of the 32 uncalled races, the Democrats are expected to win most of them. But there are 15 competitive races we watch where the party that holds the seat is currently leading. Half of them are within 2 points, so things could change. If so, we will update the estimate.
  • Notable: One of those races with a very slim margin is the seat of Rep. Lauren Boebert. She was trailing, but she’s now up 1,100 votes, and the race seems to be going her way.
  • REMARK: Please keep in mind that these numbers are fluid and will change as the votes keep rolling in. Check out the latest results here.

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